Education10 weeks

Education Learning Analytics: Predictive Student Success for University System

A state university system needed to track student outcomes and predict at-risk students across 4 campuses. We deployed Power BI with machine learning models in Microsoft Fabric, improving retention by 15% through early intervention.

15%
Retention Improvement
Real-time
Student Insights
850+
Students Retained
45K
Students Covered
200+
Faculty Users
87%
Model Accuracy

The Challenge

This state university system with 4 campuses and 45,000 students faced declining retention rates, particularly among first-generation and underrepresented students. Student data was siloed across the Student Information System (Ellucian Banner), LMS (Canvas), advising platform (EAB Navigate), and financial aid systems. Academic advisors had no way to identify at-risk students before they dropped courses or left the university. The provost wanted data-driven insights to guide intervention strategies, but existing institutional research reports were static, quarterly, and arrived too late to act on.

Our Solution

Built a student data hub in Microsoft Fabric that integrates data from Ellucian Banner (enrollment, grades, demographics), Canvas LMS (login frequency, assignment completion, participation), EAB Navigate (advising interactions), and financial aid systems.

Developed a machine learning model in Fabric Data Science that predicts student dropout risk based on 35+ features including GPA trajectory, LMS engagement patterns, financial hold status, credit completion ratio, and advising appointment attendance. The model scores students weekly.

Created role-based Power BI dashboards: provost-level retention KPIs, dean-level college/department comparisons, department chair enrollment trends, academic advisor caseload views with at-risk student flags, and financial aid yield analysis.

Implemented automated alert system that notifies academic advisors when students cross risk thresholds, triggering outreach campaigns through EAB Navigate. Alert rules are configurable by college and student population.

Built faculty self-service analytics allowing professors to see course-level engagement metrics from Canvas and grade distributions compared to department averages, enabling early identification of struggling students.

Results

15%Retention Improvement

First-year retention increased from 72% to 83% through data-driven early intervention programs.

Real-timeStudent Insights

Advisors see weekly-updated risk scores instead of waiting for quarterly institutional research reports.

850+Students Retained

Proactive outreach to at-risk students prevented 850+ dropouts in the first academic year.

45KStudents Covered

All students across 4 campuses included in the predictive analytics model.

200+Faculty Users

Faculty self-service dashboards adopted by professors across all colleges.

87%Model Accuracy

Dropout prediction model achieves 87% accuracy with weekly scoring updates.

Implementation Methodology

1

Phase 1 (Weeks 1-3): Data integration. Connected Banner, Canvas, EAB Navigate, and financial aid systems into Fabric data hub with student identity matching.

2

Phase 2 (Weeks 4-6): Predictive model development. Feature engineering, model training on 3 years of historical data, validation with holdout semester, and scoring pipeline deployment.

3

Phase 3 (Weeks 7-9): Dashboard development. Built role-based dashboards for provost, deans, advisors, and faculty with automated alert configuration.

4

Phase 4 (Week 10): Training and launch. Trained advisors and faculty, configured alert thresholds, and activated the early intervention workflow.

Technology Stack

Microsoft FabricPower BI Premium Per UserEllucian BannerCanvas LMS APIEAB NavigatePython (scikit-learn)Fabric Data Science Notebooks
Timeline: 10 weeksTeam: 4 consultants (1 data engineer, 1 data scientist, 1 BI developer, 1 PM)

Frequently Asked Questions

What data does the predictive model use?
The model uses 35+ features including GPA trajectory (current and trend), Canvas LMS engagement (login frequency, assignment submission rate, discussion participation), advising appointment attendance, financial hold status, credit completion ratio, first-generation status, and Pell Grant eligibility. It does not use race or ethnicity as direct features.
How do you handle FERPA compliance?
All student data is protected under FERPA regulations. Access is controlled through role-based security — advisors see only their assigned students, department chairs see only their department, and deans see their college. The system logs all data access for audit purposes.
How often is the risk model updated?
The model scores all students weekly during the academic term. Feature data refreshes daily from Canvas and weekly from Banner. The model itself is retrained each semester with new outcome data to improve accuracy over time.

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